![\"\"](\"http:\/\/farm5.static.flickr.com\/4069\/4662198802_8615cf0d2d_z.jpg\" "\\"Rob")
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In a former Toronto election, a long-shot candidate emerged unexpectedly from a crowded pack in the early fall to mount what would become a formidable challenge in a marathon race. That candidate carried an extremely sharp critique of the outgoing mayor, survived a major gaffe and constructed a case for support on a highly symbolic issue. He convinced voters in many parts of the city, including areas in which he was not expected to succeed, that he would stand up for the interests of ordinary families in the face of a corrupt and remote civic administration.<\/p>\n
I\u2019m guessing Spacing readers have all passed the \u201cwho-is-he\u201d quiz by this stage. But my point is that there are intriguing parallels between David Miller\u2019s 2003 election and the one we\u2019re stuck with for 2010, notwithstanding the very stark personal contrasts between the outgoing mayor and Rob Ford.<\/p>\n
George Smitherman\u2019s ill-fated candidacy is the most obvious point of comparison, because in so many ways he\u2019s re-enacting all the mistakes of Barbara Hall\u2019s campaign \u2013 no surprise, as he was the author of her attempted come-back.<\/p>\n
Like Hall, Smitherman has utterly failed to explain why he wants to be mayor, beyond an oppressive sense of deservedness. Like Hall, his platform is massive and unfocused. Like Hall, he\u2019s shown a problematic inclination to abandon his natural constituency in order to pursue suburban voting blocs. They both even sought refuge in \u201cI Love Toronto\u201d ad blitzes in lieu of a concise statement of purpose.<\/p>\n
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So with Ford now sitting on top of a commanding lead and all the associated momentum such numbers imply, is it possible for Smitherman to halt his fall and make a concerted effort to win over undecideds and progressives? Or will Joe Pantalone\u2019s base of support continue to grow as the centre-left abandons George?<\/p>\n
The longer the centre-left ruminates over this looming game of electoral chicken, the better things look for Ford. So both camps will be pressuring the other to bow out gracefully so a single anyone-but-Ford candidate can emerge.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s a tough call, but I\u2019d argue that Pantalone should fall on his sword. In an odd way, Pantalone is to 2010 what John Tory was in 2003. Setting aside the obvious differences in personality and campaign skills, Pantalone in this race is the candidate considered too close to the outgoing regime, and thus tainted. Miller (and others) successfully leveraged votes by linking Tory to Mel Lastman in 2003.<\/p>\n
Sure, the deputy mayor can and will grow as voters — especially those who never believed in the possibility of a Ford mayorality — wake up from their stupor. But can he grow enough? I don\u2019t see how. Pantalone lacks the killer instinct and the rhetorical skills to clarify the choice facing voters. He may have the ground forces to pull the vote (so does Smitherman), but he can\u2019t win without persuading at least some Ford supporters that their guy may not be everything he cracks up to be.<\/p>\n
So the core question for those who still support Miller is whether they set aside the lingering bitterness about the Transit City fight and others skirmishes with the provincial Liberals to back Smitherman, or do they cling to Pantalone and focus on maintaining a solid block of centre-left council seats to contain Ford if he wins?<\/p>\n
I\u2019m guessing neither intends to bow out, so progressive voters will have to resolve these tactical questions on their own, and quickly.<\/p>\n
photo by Shaun Merritt<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"