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George Smitherman, as most of us know by this point, wants the balance of this race to be a two-horse affair between himself and Rob Ford. But from the standpoint of council\u2019s longer-term political dynamic, the difference between a binary duel and the three-person stretch run could be quite stark.<\/p>\n
Take the following scenario: by election-day, Joe Pantalone\u2019s support has all but collapsed, giving Smitherman his wish. The results, in that case, will be fairly crisp: one loses, one wins, and the victor, moreover, will likely have a numerical majority \u2013 a detail that won\u2019t be lost on many middle-of-the-road councillors whose support is essential for any mayor who aspires to deliver on their promises.<\/p>\n
If, however, Pantalone continues to hang tough (he\u2019s announcing a slate of endorsements this morning) and his supporters don\u2019t get cold feet in the ballot box, we could see Ford win with less than 50%, especially if both Smitherman and Pantalone are effective at getting out their supporters. In that case, we wake up Tuesday morning to a city that voted centre-left and a mayor who is substantially right, as it were. Et voila, minority rule, writ local.<\/p>\n
And then what?<\/p>\n
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The result would be unprecedented for post-amalgamation Toronto; after all, in 2003 — the megacity\u2019s only broadly contested race — David Miller and Barbara Hall together accounted for 53% of votes cast, compared to John Tory\u2019s 38%. John Nunziata, also a righty, came in with 5%. Whatever else Hall and Miller thought of one another, the centre-left won that election outright.<\/p>\n
For exercised progressives, though probably less so Liberals, a Ford minority is a result they can take to the bank. It represents a rhetorical cudgel with which his council opponents can more strenuously bash his policies, and would stand, for a while at least, as a natural point of departure for the 2014 election.<\/p>\n
Surely, this is the sort of forward-looking political calculus some of Pantalone\u2019s backers have in their minds as they urge le petit gars de Trinity Spadina to stick it out to the end, despite little plausible chance of victory. He may lose, but the show must go on, right?<\/p>\n
Indeed, the mutterings about a hung council and even someone who emerges to lead the opposition \u2013 the \u201cday mayor and the nightmare,\u201d as one wag put it to me \u2013 turns, theoretically, on such an outcome. If Ford gets 50% plus one over a consolidated centre-left vote for Smitherman alone, there\u2019s no chance for progressives to claim Torontonians have delivered a politically ambiguous result.<\/p>\n
(What\u2019s potentially worse, if Smitherman wins a very slim numerical victory over Ford, there\u2019s a very real question about the strength of his mandate: he may well have a Ford (Doug) on his council, after all, plus a lot of extremely pissed conservatives who will be on his case to cut, cut, cut. When I asked him about that last week, Smitherman waved aside the premise, saying he\u2019s not worrying about the margin of victory. But in politics, as in other activities, size matters.)<\/p>\n
Let\u2019s return to the hung council scenario: if Ford takes office and the giant clam is overtaken by hard-core political gridlock (i.e., an anti-Ford coalition emerges that can consistently defeat the mayor\u2019s party), the centre-left could inadvertently administer a self-inflicted wound by presenting itself as the faction that is preventing Council from doing the city\u2019s business.<\/p>\n
I must say I remain skeptical about this kind of outcome, but the persistence of the idea in progressive circles should invite greater public scrutiny: Could a `minority\u2019 Ford victory lead to a more conciliatory approach (a la Mel Lastman), or will he run his show the way Stephen Harper governs Parliament (i.e., divide and conquer)? Does the prospect hand-to-hand combat at council help or harm the City of Toronto in its attempts to secure transit funding or other forms of support from the other orders? And how will this uncertain dynamic play out provincially, as we move towards a possible regime change at the other end of University Avenue?<\/p>\n
So many questions, so little time.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"