{"id":43704,"date":"2013-05-27T07:00:25","date_gmt":"2013-05-27T11:00:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/spacing.ca\/toronto\/?p=43704"},"modified":"2013-05-27T17:07:17","modified_gmt":"2013-05-27T21:07:17","slug":"spacing-and-innovative-research-transit-poll-skeptcism-on-revenue-tools","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/spacing.ca\/toronto\/2013\/05\/27\/spacing-and-innovative-research-transit-poll-skeptcism-on-revenue-tools\/","title":{"rendered":"Spacing and Innovative Research transit poll: Skepticism on revenue tools"},"content":{"rendered":"

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This is the first of two columns by John Lorinc today as Metrolinx announces the revenue tool recommendations for The Big Move. John filed an update after the 11am release<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n

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With Metrolinx releasing its long-awaited investment strategy today, an exclusive Spacing<\/em> poll shows that scarcely more than a quarter of GTHA residents are prepared to back a regional sales tax hike to raise funds to pay for a generation\u2019s worth of transit and congestion-busting investments across the region.<\/p>\n

Furthermore, only 17% of all respondents agreed that individual taxpayers should foot the bill for Metrolinx\u2019s next wave of Big Move projects. Indeed, almost four in ten felt that transit users should pick up the tab. Interestingly, 44% felt the cost should be borne by businesses and developers, while 60% of the respondents said that the private sector should be more involved in financing these projects.<\/p>\n

As for the revenue tools themselves, the poll \u2014 conducted earlier this month by Innovative Research Group<\/a>* \u2014 revealed that residents were most likely to favour four sorts of taxes \u2014 development charges, parking space levies, HOT lanes, and highway tolls \u2014 over all the other mechanisms floated by the regional agency earlier this spring. Those four, some of which have turned up as top choices in other recent polls, are the only ones on Metrolinx\u2019s short-list to merit \u201cnet positive support,\u201d meaning the total number of respondents in favour exceeds those opposed.<\/p>\n

Problem is, Metrolinx officials have said in recent weeks that highway tolls won\u2019t be considered until a lot more transit is up and running. Moreover, two of the tools that passed muster with the public in the Spacing<\/em>\/Innovative poll \u2014 development charges and HOT lanes \u2014 aren\u2019t big money-makers.<\/p>\n

The AECOM study of the revenue tools<\/a> released in March estimated the net revenue from HOT lanes is probably no more than $100 million annually. Development charges can bring in a further $50 million. As for the parking space levy, it could raise over $400 million per year, but AECOM cautions that it would be like a property tax and would therefore have to be adopted by individual municipalities, which adds an element of uncertainty and plenty of delay.<\/p>\n

In sum, while 55% of GTHA drivers reports that their commute is getting worse and three in four residents feel more transit is the way to change the channel on congestion, the lukewarm support for acceptable but low-impact revenue tools underscores the magnitude of the challenge Premier Kathleen Wynne\u2019s minority government faces as it gears up to find ways to raise about $2 billion a year.<\/p>\n

What makes her agenda even more daunting is that the public\u2019s awareness of Metrolinx\u2019s grand plan, though certainly greater than it was a year or two ago, remains modest, especially outside the 416 (45% of all residents have heard of The Big Move, with that figure rising to 57% inside the 416).<\/p>\n

Lastly, the poll findings indicate that City of Toronto residents are substantially more troubled by the state of transit, congestion and road maintenance than those in the rest of the region. That skew poses another set of political dilemmas, because the proposed taxes and levies will be imposed right across the GTHA, not just in the aggrieved and gridlocked 416.<\/p>\n

Metrolinx has been careful to create a blueprint that is intended to bring new transit investment to the entire region \u2013 subways are slated for some areas, while others will see BRTs, LRTs and enhanced GO service. Yet even with these new projects, the reality is that 905 transit usage will remain relatively low for decades to come because of long established low-density development patterns.<\/p>\n

In other words, Metrolinx and the provincial government need to persuade residents right across the GTHA that the overall transportation network benefits of all these investments in new transit projects will be felt broadly, as opposed to just within the corridors where these new lines will run.<\/p>\n

For a government in a hurry, they have an awful lot of educating to do before they move to bring forward legislation imposing this new fiscal reality on the GTHA.<\/p>\n

Other recent public opinion research on Metrolinx\u2019s investment strategy:<\/p>\n