{"id":48763,"date":"2014-06-13T07:30:03","date_gmt":"2014-06-13T11:30:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/spacing.ca\/toronto\/?p=48763"},"modified":"2014-06-12T23:55:20","modified_gmt":"2014-06-13T03:55:20","slug":"lorinc-ontario-election-means-torontos-mayoral-race","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/spacing.ca\/toronto\/2014\/06\/13\/lorinc-ontario-election-means-torontos-mayoral-race\/","title":{"rendered":"LORINC: What Ontario election means for Toronto’s mayoral race"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"feature-lorinc\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Last night\u2019s stunning win for Liberal premier Kathleen Wynne will almost certainly trigger not one but two leadership races \u2014 Tim Hudak will get the boot after seeing several Tory blue seats morph into Liberal red ones. And Andrea Horwath, the instigator of this whole exercise, managed to move from a position of great political influence to a position of no political influence.<\/p>\n

But the other politician who\u2019s got to be worried about the provincial outcome is Olivia Chow, currently the front-runner in the mayoral race. After a night that saw the NDP lose in her old (federal) riding of Trinity-Spadina, Chow must be wondering whether her former party\u2019s tepid electoral showing in the 416 will cast a long shadow over her own ostensibly non-partisan run.<\/p>\n

Yet there\u2019s a much more specific problem that will confront Chow now that Wynne has a solid majority, and that is the viability of her centerpiece campaign plank \u2014 the pledge to reverse the $1 billion Scarborough subway decision and proceed instead with the originally planned LRT.<\/p>\n

In Toronto, Wynne\u2019s Liberals ran on a promise to build the Scarborough subway \u2014 it was in their spring budget, and then it was part of their campaign platform. With a majority in hand, the premier, I\u2019m guessing, will be far less inclined to indulge Toronto council in yet another chaotic debate about transit priorities, especially after fending off an existential challenge from the NDP.<\/p>\n

After all, she can \u2014 and will \u2014 say that voters backed her transit program, both at the macro level (the $29 billion transit trust fund) and at the micro level (the Scarborough subway decision, orchestrated last spring and summer). Regardless of the excessive cost and the poor planning it reflects, the decision is part of her government\u2019s record, and voters in Toronto signed off on it, in significant numbers.<\/p>\n

As with all minority governments that graduate into majorities, Wynne\u2019s Liberals will become far more assertive in their decision-making in the months to come. Never mind that her own political career began, way back in the mid-1990s, with a fight to force Mike Harris\u2019 Tories to respect local democracy.<\/p>\n

Now, with the roles reversed, she\u2019s got four years of clear sailing ahead of her. At least part of the Liberals\u2019 success in the 905 has to do with their promise to confront gridlock, and Wynne\u2019s going to want to be able to show progress in 2018. So she\u2019s not going to squander another year re-litigating Scarborough, regardless of the merit. What\u2019s more, I predict she\u2019ll find many ways to telegraph this point to Toronto voters, probably through emissaries, long before the municipal vote.<\/p>\n

The flip side of this analysis is that John Tory finds himself exceedingly well positioned to take advantage of Wynne\u2019s victory, and not just because he\u2019s got the most Liberals working in his war room. (He got a congratulations note out the door before any of his rivals.)<\/p>\n

Tory began cozying up to the Liberals two weeks ago with the release of his surface-rail strategy, which strongly resembled Metrolinx\u2019s own plan and carried the imprimatur of several influential Liberals. Tory would be a fool not to remind voters at every turn that if they elect Chow in October, she\u2019ll be attempting to deliver a promise that runs directly counter to the Liberals\u2019 mandate.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s possible that Chow could attempt a campaign course correction, and either try to fudge on her Scarborough subway promise (`we\u2019ll review\u2026\u2019) or simply let it fall by the political wayside. But in so doing, she will lose a vital wedge that distinguishes her from Tory on arguably the most top-of-mind issue in the election.<\/p>\n

Quite apart from the particulars of the candidates\u2019 respective platforms, I\u2019m guessing that many Toronto voters, between now and voting day in October, will find themselves asking which leader is likely to work most constructively with a newly emboldened Wynne.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s crystal clear that Rob Ford, who will make his sobriety victory lap later this month, is not that guy. But last night\u2019s result may prompt Torontonians to ask themselves whether Chow can fulfill that role. More than anything else, Wynne\u2019s majority means that voters, in Toronto and across Ontario, are weary of gridlock, in all its guises. It\u2019s a message Toronto\u2019s mayoralty candidates would do well to heed.<\/p>\n

photo from Toronto Archives<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Last night\u2019s stunning win for Liberal premier Kathleen Wynne will almost certainly trigger not one but two leadership races \u2014 Tim Hudak will get the boot after seeing several Tory blue seats morph into Liberal red ones. 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