{"id":50109,"date":"2014-10-30T12:30:11","date_gmt":"2014-10-30T16:30:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/spacing.ca\/toronto\/?p=50109"},"modified":"2014-10-30T20:27:30","modified_gmt":"2014-10-31T00:27:30","slug":"torontos-mayoral-election-five-maps","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/spacing.ca\/toronto\/2014\/10\/30\/torontos-mayoral-election-five-maps\/","title":{"rendered":"Toronto\u2019s mayoral election in five more maps"},"content":{"rendered":"

Yesterday, University of Toronto Professor David Hulchanski summarized the link between Monday’s election results and the increasing socioeconomic divisions<\/a> in Toronto that he has been studying for years. While John Tory and Olivia Chow were elected in wards that have\u00a0significantly higher socio-economic status and less ethno-cultural diversity than those that backed Doug Ford. There are other stories that can be found when the preliminary data (official results have not yet been released by the City of Toront0) is analysed. Voter turnout increased across the city, and there are corners of the city in which “Ford Nation” remains strong, a symptom of a disturbing trend discussed by Hulchanski.<\/p>\n

Drilling down<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Most maps published of the results of Monday\u2019s municipal election (all showing the support for the Mayor of Toronto) so far have shown how each ward voted for mayor. So far, most maps, like the one above, have illustrated which mayoral candidate won a plurality of voters in each ward, few show the margin of each ward\u2019s \u201cwin.\u201d The map below shows the margin of votes of each ward, and tells a better story. One can see that Doug Ford\u2019s support was strongest in the northeastern and (especially the) northwestern corners of the city, and John Tory\u2019s support strongest in four wealthier Midtown wards. Downtown, the number of votes for Tory is softened by support for Olivia Chow, in North York and southern Etobicoke, by support for Doug Ford.\"Results<\/a><\/p>\n

Results of 2014 mayoral election by ward<\/em><\/p>\n

In 2010, Rob Ford won the mayoral race with 47.1 percent of all votes, and a plurality of votes in 31 of Toronto\u2019s 44 wards, and a majority in 24 of those\u00a0wards. George Smitherman, the early front-runner, got 35.6 percent of the vote and won\u00a0the remaining 13 wards, and\u00a0a majority only in 6 of those. Councillor Joe Pantalone, the standard-bearer of the left,\u00a0got 11.7 percent of the vote and only managed to place second in Ward 19, the ward that he represented at City Council\u00a0for many years. \u00a0The 13 wards that chose Smitherman form an inverted \u201cT\u201d on a map \u2013 similar to the boundaries of the old, pre-amalgamation City of Toronto. \u00a0(See map below.)<\/p>\n

The polarized electorate is very much evident on both maps that show the margin of each candidate’s success in each ward. In 2010, 19 wards selected Rob Ford over George Smitherman by margins higher than 50 percent. With the exception of Wards 25, 26,\u00a029, and 31, every ward\u00a0located mostly\u00a0outside the old City of Toronto voted for Ford by at least a 25\u00a0percent\u00a0margin. The “Downtown” Wards 19, 20, 27, 28, and 30 selected Smitherman by margins over 50\u00a0percent.<\/p>\n

\"2014<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

Results of 2010 mayoral election by ward<\/em><\/p>\n

In 2014, the map changed. John Tory was the first choice of voters in half \u2013 22 of 44\u00a0 \u2013 of all wards. Doug Ford came in first in 19 wards and Olivia Chow first in three. But the northeastern and (especially the) northwestern suburbs stubbornly stuck with\u00a0the Fords. In 12 wards, Doug Ford got more votes than his brother did in 2010 (not completely unexpected given the increased voter turnout). In five of those wards – Wards 1, 7, 8, 9, and 42 \u2013 the percentage of votes for mayor increased for Doug Ford over Rob Ford, in defiance of the prevailing mood of most\u00a0of Toronto.<\/p>\n

John Tory, the newly elected mayor of Toronto, has his geographic base of support in Midtown Toronto \u2013 the leafy neighbourhoods between Bathurst Street and the Don Valley Parkway and between Bloor Street and Highway 401. This contrasts to 6 wards in northern Etobicoke, Downsview, and York South-Weston, where Tory could not even win 20 percent of the vote. This \u2013 the\u00a0last bastion\u00a0of the Ford Family\u2019s power base \u2013 \u00a0is a large part of the city that desperately needs to be united with the rest of Toronto \u2013 economically, socially and politically.<\/p>\n

\"2014-Election-Votes-for-Tory-Spacing1\"<\/a>
\nPercentage of votes for mayor-elect John Tory by ward<\/em><\/p>\n

Voter Turnout<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

In 2014, voter turnout was 60.3 percent, the highest in the history of the amalgamated City of Toronto, and a significant increase from the 2010 figure of 50.6. The highest turnouts were in Wards 30 and 32, both featuring high-profile council races; the lowest turnout was found in Ward 41, in northern Scarborough, where incumbent Chin Lee was easily re-elected. The second map shows the change in voter turnout in 2014 versus 2010 \u2013 while every ward saw more voters heading to the polls, those in wards that voted for Tory or Chow generally saw the highest increase in voter turnout.<\/p>\n

Voter turnout in municipal elections is an interest of mine. A recent\u00a0study written for the Maytree Foundation<\/a>, by Ryerson professor Myer Siemiatycki\u00a0 and myself,\u00a0examined\u00a0voter turnout in the 2003, 2006 and 2010 municipal elections. It found connections between high concentrations of immigrant and visible minority populations and lower voter turnout (with interesting exceptions, such as in Thorncliffe Park). Desmond Cole wrote an excellent summary of this study<\/a> in Torontoist last week. \u00a0The overall increase in voter turnout is encouraging, but the same patterns of high and low voter engagement identified in that study appear to persist.<\/p>\n


\n<\/a>\"2014
\n<\/a>Voter turnout by\u00a0ward, 2014<\/em><\/p>\n


\n<\/a>\"2014
\n<\/a>Change in voter turnout by ward, 2010 to 2014<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yesterday, University of Toronto Professor David Hulchanski summarized the link between Monday’s election results and the increasing socioeconomic divisions in Toronto that he has been studying for years. While John Tory and Olivia Chow were elected in wards that have\u00a0significantly higher socio-economic status and less ethno-cultural diversity than those that backed Doug Ford. There areContinue reading “Toronto\u2019s mayoral election in five more maps”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4030,"featured_media":50154,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_checkbox_needs-photo":"","_ef_editorial_meta_number_word-count":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[170,2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50109","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-maps","category-politics"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nToronto\u2019s mayoral election in five more maps - Spacing Toronto<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/spacing.ca\/toronto\/2014\/10\/30\/torontos-mayoral-election-five-maps\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Toronto\u2019s mayoral election in five more maps - Spacing Toronto\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Yesterday, University of Toronto Professor David Hulchanski summarized the link between Monday’s election results and the increasing socioeconomic divisions in Toronto that he has been studying for years. 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