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When I look at the latest staff report<\/a> outlining, ahem, progress on the Scarborough subway extension (SSE), I see a document absolutely packed with off-ramps, escape hatches, emergency brakes, and other sly bureaucratic opportunities for Mayor John Tory \u2014\u00a0or whoever is ostensibly driving this runaway train \u2014\u00a0to extricate the City from a catastrophically ill-conceived mega-project.<\/p>\n While he continues to gamely defend the latest indefensible iteration in the SSE, the mayor\u2019s stubborn disinclination to pull one of the various rip chords being dangled in front of his face remains the great mysteries of his administration. Perhaps he should be looking a little more closely at the potential exits up ahead.<\/p>\n Let\u2019s take them in order.<\/p>\n The most obvious of these \u2014\u00a0the one hidden in plain view \u2014\u00a0is the bureaucratic framing of yesterday\u2019s \u201cnews\u201d.<\/p>\n The City\u2019s staff report bends over backwards to demonstrate that the cost of the line, which will be running under McCowan Road and now includes a fancy-schmancy bus terminal wedged into the flank of the Scarborough Town Centre, remains under the $3.56 billion plateau that could trigger a re-opening at council. But the new number \u2014\u00a0$3.35 billion \u2014\u00a0is dubious on its face because it reveals officialdom\u2019s awareness of that upset limit. It\u2019s like believing the car dealer\u2019s pitch that the shiny new vehicle out on the lot is actually $19,999. It\u2019s not.<\/p>\n Surely, we shouldn\u2019t be dealing in loss-leader figures at this point.<\/p>\n Point is, Tory et al<\/em> could respond to this top-line, made-for-the-evening-news figure with the sort of skepticism befitting someone who situates himself on the fiscally sensible centre-right. Any dispassionate reading of the report would produce a similar conclusion: that the staff is managing the politics, not the cost.<\/p>\n This one is hidden a bit further in to the staff report, down in the fifth appendix with the third-party review of the TTC\u2019s cost estimate. The consultant offers up this chestnut of engineering caution:<\/p>\n In general, the TTC [order of magnitude estimate] is valid and appropriate for this stage of the project development (2% to 5% complete documentation). In our opinion, if the scope does not change, this is a <\/em>valid estimate in 2015 dollars. Valid order of magnitude estimates (OMEs) typically anticipate a level of accuracy of -20% and +50% (reference AACE 2016 www.aacei.org\/toc\/toc_18R-97.pdf<\/a>) <\/em>assuming that the project scope does not change. However, if the scope changes, as with any and all construction budgets, the ability to fund and absorb the cost of scope changes is often problematic. [emphasis added]<\/em><\/p>\n Hmm. We\u2019re using two-year-old numbers, a tiny fraction of the required documentation to prepare a sturdy estimate, and a big fat caveat about scope changes. The sheer hilariousness of that last point is worth highlighting: yesterday\u2019s report surfaced specifically because<\/em> of scope changes \u2014\u00a0a new bus station.<\/p>\n Of course, the politicians can say that the scope on such a giant undertaking will continue to change until it doesn\u2019t. But the well-defended planning logic that goes into these endeavours is not unlike what you\u2019ll hear from the mechanics at the garage or renovators: “While we\u2019ve got the wheels off your car\u2026while we\u2019ve exposed the wall\u2026while we\u2019ve etc., etc., \u2014\u00a0we may as well do X, Y and Z because they\u2019ll have to be done at some point and no time like the present, etc., etc.”<\/p>\n My favourite line in the staff report is the one that is perhaps the least technical part of the whole document, but contains the greatest degree of project risk. Read along with me:<\/p>\n Among its other major conclusions served up to the executive committee, the report \u201crecommends City Council request the province and federal governments to confirm funding for the project.\u201d<\/p>\n A formality? Shake your big head.<\/p>\n The Gardiner rebuild budget last fall suddenly grew by almost a billion dollars because it turned out, upon closer inspection, that the federal government wasn\u2019t prepared to sink money into the great road. As it turns out, the confirmed funding that was part of the initial budget considered by council wasn\u2019t so confirmed after all.<\/p>\n Which leads us to the next instalment in this shell game, which is the mayor\u2019s surreal digression into toll road politics. As everyone remembers, Tory suddenly got religion on tolling the city\u2019s two highways, but many people reckoned he had his eye on all those 905 toonies so he could find a way of putting fiscal duct tape over the hole his friends in Ottawa had produced.<\/p>\n But then Tory\u2019s red friends at the pink palace decided to do a bait-and-switch on the tolls (the imposition of which requires provincial assent), and\u00a0the city was left with nothing more than an unconvincing promise for gas tax revenues that will never materialize.<\/p>\n On top of all that, one might ask if the provincial contribution of $1.48 billion is a 2013 number or a year-of-expenditure number? It\u2019s not a trite detail: After all, if Queen\u2019s Park circa 2020 \u2014\u00a0by then\u00a0firmly under the control of Premier Patrick Brown, who likely will owe no fealty to the long-suffering people of Scarborough \u2014\u00a0insists on paying in 2013 dollars instead of inflation-adjusted ones, we could be out by many more tens or even hundreds of millions. Et voila<\/em>, we\u2019re over that magic $3.56 billion!<\/p>\n In short,\u00a0seeking all sorts of confirmation from the other orders seems like a good idea indeed. But remember to sit back and enjoy the tsunami of prevarication when such confirmation is sought.<\/p>\n Which brings me to the final:<\/p>\n While many Canadian urbanists fantasize about getting all three orders of government to collaborate on\u00a0important city-building projects, the reality is that such jointly-funded projects can degenerate into a hot mess. But the staff\u2019s recommendation to re-engage the other orders offers all and sundry the possibility of injecting some sanity into an evidently insane situation.<\/p>\n If all three partners can agree amongst themselves that the costed-out reality of this political mis-adventure produces a form of absurdity that will reflect poorly on all sides, they can hit re-set and align behind a transit plan for Scarborough that actually makes sense and deliver benefits broadly, as opposed to those lucky\u00a0few who will actually ride what amounts to the Trump Tower of subway projects.<\/p>\n All they have to do is stand in the same spot as they pull the emergency brake.<\/p>\n featured photo\u00a0by\u00a0Tsar Kasim<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"ESCAPE HATCH I<\/h3>\n
ESCAPE HATCH II<\/h3>\n
ESCAPE HATCH III<\/h3>\n
ESCAPE HATCH IV<\/h3>\n