{"id":58960,"date":"2018-06-19T08:00:23","date_gmt":"2018-06-19T12:00:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/spacing.ca\/toronto\/?p=58960"},"modified":"2018-06-19T16:23:15","modified_gmt":"2018-06-19T20:23:15","slug":"lorinc-will-doug-ford-govern","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/spacing.ca\/toronto\/2018\/06\/19\/lorinc-will-doug-ford-govern\/","title":{"rendered":"LORINC: How will Doug Ford govern?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

How will Doug Ford govern?<\/p>\n

With a week left before he\u2019s sworn in, the most crucial, and also the most elusive, question right now is what will be the form of leadership Ford brings to his new position.<\/p>\n

Will he adopt a Trumpian style, peddling a politics of lies, braggadocio, and vengefulness while ensuring that the floor is always tilting this way and that to keep both enemies and friends off balance?<\/p>\n

Will he adopt the Beverley Hillbillies style \u2014 all insularity and doofus-like mistrust of elites \u2014 that characterized the chaotic term that he and his late brother spent atop the civic bureaucracy?<\/p>\n

Or will he reveal something as yet unknown (or at least unobserved) in his notion of governing, one that is discernibly tactical and more demonstrably team-oriented than everything in his career to date might have indicated?<\/p>\n

Let me begin with number two. I have no special insight into Ford\u2019s personality and thinking, but it seems pretty obvious to me that in some important ways, he\u2019s not going to be quite like the guy who was always looking over Rob\u2019s shoulder between 2010 and 2014.<\/p>\n

For those of us who had ring-side seats to the Ford Family Circus, it was clear the brothers had an intensely complex and somewhat destructive relationship, one marked by jealousy and oneupsmanship but also an almost impenetrable form of group think. They egged each other on relentlessly \u2013 John and Bobby, but on the other end of the ideological spectrum. On numerous occasions, Doug was also clearly trying to outflank or humiliate Rob; indeed, the power-dynamic between the two was never more evident than the fateful day when the mayor revealed his crack problem in a scrum held while Doug was out of the building.<\/p>\n

The clannishness of the Ford family remains in tact. But I do think it\u2019s relevant that Ford will not spend long days in the company of a politically like-minded sibling whom he both admired and resented.<\/p>\n

Yes, the Office of the Premier of Ontario will be well stocked with ideologues and sycophants and know-nothings. But no one will quite fill Rob\u2019s unique role.<\/p>\n

Absent the Rob echo chamber, Ford\u2019s circle of advisors will be institutionally wider. He will have a cabinet and a secretary of the cabinet<\/em> (correction from earlier version). He will also preside over a large caucus, to half of whom (the 905ers) he owes his victory.<\/p>\n

Ford’s team, in fact, includes a growing contingent of people with serious experience in government, especially Stephen Harper’s Ottawa, according to The Globe and Mail<\/a>. Besides figures like Christine Elliott, Parm Gill and Vic Fedelli and transition team member John Baird, I’d also expect that the new Ajax MPP Rod Phillips, the horse-whisperer (chief of staff) in Mel Lastman\u2019s frequently gong-show-ish administration, will have a key role, not least because he\u2019s worked closely with both John Tory and Liberal finance minister Bill Morneau.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s entirely possible that Ford will surround himself with good-ole\u2019-boys and sideline the more moderate characters in his caucus. It\u2019s also possible that he\u2019ll put the big names in the cabinet but then either undermine or ignore them, opting instead to prime the populist pump or egg on the social conservatives.<\/p>\n

Still, I think the insularity that the Brothers Ford created for themselves at City Hall will simply be more difficult to attain in a setting like Queen\u2019s Park, where the apparatus of government is so much vaster and more intricate.<\/p>\n

All of this is entirely theoretical, and Ford\u2019s early moves provide little evidence of a clear pattern. I found it interesting and salient that he moved quickly to publicly support Justin Trudeau when Trump attacked him at and after the G7. It was a show of intentional solidarity that, to my ear, suggests he had consulted with the Tories in Ottawa and elsewhere who have set aside partisan differences with the Liberals in order to show a united front in the face of sobering trade threats.<\/p>\n

At the same time, he quickly sent some love towards the social conservatives in the caucus by foregrounding his plan to overhaul the province\u2019s apparently Sodom and Gomorrah-like sex education curriculum. He has also demonstrated the coy, dog-whistle homophobia that marked Rob\u2019s tenure in the mayor\u2019s office.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s also possible to see Ford\u2019s showy bid to both cancel the province\u2019s cap-and-trade as evidence of a denier\u2019s view on climate change, and perhaps a clue that he\u2019s going to follow Trump\u2019s lead and make its his mission to undo much of what Kathleen Wynne achieved in office.<\/p>\n

I have every confidence that significant elements of her record will be both dismantled or lustily disparaged, with the climate change moves as Exhibit A. But Ford\u2019s campaign pledge to cancel Ontario\u2019s system and slash gas taxes also reminds me a lot of one of Rob\u2019s signature moves \u2013 the cancelation of the $60 vehicle registration tax.<\/p>\n

The Fords, it seems to me, have a laser-precise sense of how to re-cast an ordinary car-related irritant \u2013 e.g., the regular visit to the gas pump or an annual vehicle levy \u2013 as a symbol of government over-reach. I\u2019m sure he spends very little time pondering climate change, but I wouldn\u2019t be surprised either to see him turn up some day at the ribbon-cutting for some flashy, job-creating green energy plant. Rather, what Ford knows is that a pocket-book gesture like a 10-cent\/litre reduction in gas taxes will drop a whole lot of capital into his political piggy bank.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s also true that such moves don\u2019t necessarily lead to backsliding when it comes to climate change. When the Fords iced the VRT, the provincial government was more than happy to fill the tax room with steadily rising registration fees (the provincial rate has more than doubled since the early 2010s<\/a>, with such revenues helping to finance the province\u2019s transit construction efforts).<\/p>\n

Likewise, as the Toronto Sta<\/em>r\u2019s Martin Regg Cohn pointed out<\/a> over the weekend, the feds can step in and fill the breach with their own carbon tax if the Ford government pulls the plug. In other words, Ford is feathering his political bed by playing jurisdictional whack-a-mole with Ottawa, a time-honoured form of chicken that\u2019s long gone on between Canada\u2019s orders of government.<\/p>\n

In short, the carbon tax ball is in the feds court. But Ford hasn\u2019t yet discovered just how aggressively he can play his hand. After all, in the tariff war with the U.S., Canadian governments can use the tariff revenues to compensate industries hit by the U.S. ones. Quebec recently announced it would help its affected businesses, which puts Ford on notice at a time when he\u2019s probably not looking for new ways to spend. In short, he may need to be a bit circumspect in his dealing with the federal Liberals, who are in a position to offer some of that relief.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s anyone\u2019s guess as to how this chess game plays out, and who emerges with the upper hand. We\u2019ll all know more when he names his cabinet, and what else he plans to do beyond the four big election promises. For me, the most salient clues about his eventual style of governing will be found in the make up of his cabinet as well as the degree to which he sees his majority as a mandate to erase Wynne\u2019s record.<\/p>\n

Then we\u2019ll have an answer to the other urgent question, which is whether Ontario\u2019s got a made-in-Canaa Trump on its hands or someone more like Stephen Harper.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

How will Doug Ford govern? With a week left before he\u2019s sworn in, the most crucial, and also the most elusive, question right now is what will be the form of leadership Ford brings to his new position. Will he adopt a Trumpian style, peddling a politics of lies, braggadocio, and vengefulness while ensuring thatContinue reading “LORINC: How will Doug Ford govern?”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4051,"featured_media":58967,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_checkbox_needs-photo":"","_ef_editorial_meta_number_word-count":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-58960","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLORINC: How will Doug Ford govern? - Spacing Toronto<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/spacing.ca\/toronto\/2018\/06\/19\/lorinc-will-doug-ford-govern\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"LORINC: How will Doug Ford govern? - Spacing Toronto\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"How will Doug Ford govern? With a week left before he\u2019s sworn in, the most crucial, and also the most elusive, question right now is what will be the form of leadership Ford brings to his new position. 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