LORINC: Don’t count out Doug Ford just yet

The dominant media narrative in the wake of Friday’s mind-blowing events was that Doug Ford — to paraphrase Lloyd Bensten — is no Rob Ford, and therefore stands little chance of winning the mayoralty on October 27. Indeed, the second of two flash polls reported over the weekend put him at just 16%; the first, by Forum, had him at 34%, just seven points behind frontrunner John Tory.

Much digital ink was spilled, including in this space, enumerating Doug’s charm deficit and his conspicuously thuggish demeanor. While the media critique of Doug’s approach to politics has been mostly spot-on, I’d argue that no one should lull themselves into believing that he’s on the ballot merely to take one for the team.

Rather, I would argue that a very different dynamic could click in from here on, one that could produce a nail biting finish as opposed to the coronation that seemed to be awaiting the clearly perturbed Tory until lunchtime Friday.

Consider the architecture of Tory’s large and growing tent, at least as it existed as of last Friday morning.

In many ways, Tory is trying to rebuild the Lastman coalition, which has as its core centre-of-the-road midtown and suburban homeowners — some on the right-wing of the Liberal spectrum, and some of the centre-left end of the Tory universe. He also had, and was clearly courting, that subset of red-meat conservatives who agreed with Ford’s program but got tired of his antics, probably because they were getting in the way of delivering on his aforementioned program. Lastly, Tory’s camp almost certainly includes some moderately left-of-centre voters who would normally be members of Chow Nation but have opted to cast their ballots strategically so as to ensure that Rob was gone, once and for all.

That coalition, I’m guessing, is a whole lot less cohesive today than it was last week, and here’s why:

For the red meat conservatives who drifted into Toryland, Doug, surely, is the real deal. While he’ll shoot his mouth off and say impolitic things, he’s not going to run into the bushes and drink vodka, nor is he going to show up on pirated cell phone videos with a crack pipe in hand (if such videos existed, they’d have been in circulation by now). In other words, he’s Rob without the blushing, whereas Tory continues to radiate that kind of wishy-washiness one can contract by hanging around Liberals for too long.

Now, for the Tory supporters who are nose-holding progressives (you know who you are), Chow in the past week or so appears to have started to find her voice and show some passion. Moreover, she’s launched a compelling attack on Tory’s Smart Track scheme, and in fact scored big last week when she vividly demonstrated that his preferred route would pass directly through some building parcels on the former Richview expressway right-of-way on Eglinton Ave. In an election where transit is the dominant policy issue, Chow’s critique seems increasingly credible vis-a-vis Tory’s plan and its questionable financing premises, and that fact alone may be changing some minds.

In other words, Tory’s support could begin bleeding both right and left, creating — at least in the interim — a far closer, and tenser, race than we’ve witnessed to date. Whether Chow can turn her slide around remains to be seen. But what does appear likely is that Tory’s double-digit lead may begin to shrink.

Now consider a few more factors:

The sympathy vote. Cynical as it may sound, no one should be so naïve as to believe that Doug’s emotive, brotherly performance at the family compound on Friday evening was anything other than an explicit attempt to hoover up some of the sympathy flowing in Rob’s direction. Yes, the Fords are genuinely distraught by Rob’s condition. But that sort of photo-op, I predict, will be merely the first of many stagey gestures on his part to capitalize on the outpouring of concern for his ailing brother.

A made-for-Doug platform. Besides the subway fantasy, and a vague pledge to contain the raccoon population, Rob didn’t have much of a platform as of last week, besides promising to continue being himself. I’ll predict that Doug’s platform will be much more detailed than Rob’s was going to be, and will likely be built around a pledge to freeze property taxes for some or all of the years of his term. I also wouldn’t be surprised if he had several specific proposals for asset sales and service privatization. Lastly, he’ll also throw in some social-service pot sweeteners to show that he’s not the Tin Man – e.g., investing savings from outsourcing in breakfast programs or somesuch.

The John Nunziata factor. There was the old Jean Chretien Rat Packer at Doug’s elbow on Friday afternoon, helping him notarize his papers and then filing his own to run against the hapless Frank DiGiorgio, Rob’s final budget chair. Nunziata, remember, ran for mayor in 2003, and succeeded in making a first class nuisance of himself. Anyone who thinks Nunziata’s plan for the next six weeks is to quietly stump through the cul-de-sacs of York South-Weston should give their head a shake. Nunziata, I suspect, will be a charter member of the Doug Ford cheering section, and his role in this race should not be under-estimated.

With media reports suggesting that Doug has been plotting a campaign since the spring, it would be a mistake for anyone to assume that he’s going to bumble and growl his way to the finish line. Doug’s going to be competitive. Get used to it.

photo by Ashton Pal