Last week, the NDP made the first move on funding for municipalities in the still lukewarm provincial election campaign. This week, we’ll find out how the other major parties will treat Ontario’s 445 local governments, including Toronto.
First, back to last week. On Tuesday, NDP Leader Howard Hampton committed to delivering a boatload of cash to Toronto between 2008 and 2015. The pledge, made as part of a province-wide strategy for funding municipalities, included uploading social services like the Ontario Disability Support Program (ODSP) and returning to the TTC operating business. In total, the promise will deliver about $400 million per year to Toronto once it’s fully implemented.
Although the NDP strategy is focused on a long-term solution, it wouldn’t eliminate the need for the new taxes being proposed by Mayor David Miller. In fact, because of the way this money would be phased in, if the NDP plan were to take effect as presented, the City would need every cent (and a few more) of the new taxes and NDP money to balance the 2008 budget. The equation goes something like this: $211 million (2008 NDP money) + $356 million (new taxes on an annualized basis) = $567 million. The City’s budget gap, of course, is $575 million in 2008 and the new taxes couldn’t be implemented until at least the second quarter of 2008 because of The Deferral (if implemented at all), meaning they’re worth substantially less than $356 million next year.
The other caveat here is that the NDP has been running in the high-teens to low-20s in public opinion polls over the past year while the Progressive Conservatives and Liberals have been running in the mid- and high-30s respectively. So the only way this promise is particularly useful is if, at some point during the campaign, Hampton promises to make this platform plank a condition for his support in the not so unlikely scenario that Ontario elects a minority government.
In terms of strategy, by releasing this part of their platform in advance of this week’s Association of Municipalities of Ontario (AMO) meeting [PDF], where all party leaders were expected to talk specifics on municipalities for the first time, the NDP is clearly trying to define itself as the champion of municipalities. Though it’s yet to be seen if this approach will have an effect on the electorate, it did force the Liberals to play a bit of defense last week.
After the NDP announcement, Premier Dalton McGuinty and Finance Minister (slash chair of the Ontario Liberal election campaign) Greg Sorbara were left to field questions about their plan for Toronto. In sum, the message amounted to “Shhh, you’re making us look bad for only doing some of what we said we’d do.â€
But with the review McGuinty undertook earlier this year to examine municipal and provincial responsibilities versus the revenue streams each order of government has at its disposal not slated to report until 2008, the Liberals had an excuse to not immediately up the ante on promises to municipalities.
And though Progressive Conservative Leader John Tory has called out McGuinty for using the review as a stall tactic, he’s also committed to completing the review McGuinty started before determining what, if any, relief he’ll offer to Toronto.
So with McGuinty and Tory competing for headlines on Wednesday when the party leaders address AMO delegates, it’s anyone’s guess what they’ll say. They may feel the need to play catch up to the NDP announcement. Or, with Toronto out of the room, they could win friends by delivering a sucker punch to Hogtown.
Photo courtesy jgrantmac.
