Adam Giambrone, Joe Pantalone (both unregistered but have declared intentions)
Shelley Carroll (undeclared but highly rumoured)
George Smitherman (registered)
Rocco Rossi, John Tory (registered, “withdrew”)
Georgio Mammoliti (registered)
Rob Ford (undeclared but highly rumoured)
With the announcement that John Tory has decided not to run in the 2010 municipal election, Spacing thought it would be a good idea to chart out where we think the candidates (registered, declared, and undeclared) find themselves on the political spectrum. While highly unscientific — not to mention a fun exercise for political junkies — the space occupied by each candidate is based on their public musings or political record.
If we had produced this map a few days ago, we suspect George Smitherman’s purple circle wold have been further to left, but with the exit of Tory from the campaign trail, Furious George may not have to occupy as wide of a spectrum. Even Rocco Rossi’s circle might have been further left too, but we fully expect him to go after the right-of-centre/Red Tory vote since he did work closely with John Tory in the 2003 municipal election.
The true wild card in this spectrum is city councillor and budget chief Shelly Carroll (one of the only outed Liberals on council): the city hall rumour mill says she is still considering a run. Her decision will certainly affect the mayoral bids of councillors Joe Pantalone and Adam Giambrone who will have to reach outside of their core base of voters if Carroll decides to stay out of the race.
Councillor Georgio Mammoliti will probably defy all political predictions and bounce around the spectrum throughout the campaign (where do casinos and red light districts land on a political spectrum launched from the mouth of a former NDP provincial rep?). Rob Ford, predictably, finds himself near American militia territory.
As a side note, it’s quite possible that Toronto’s next mayor may need only 40% or less to win (specifically in a three- or four-person horse race). With a 35% voter turnout (the average of 2003 and 2006 turnout), a candidate only has to convince 15% of eligible voters to choose him or her.