As pedestrians deaths have mounted on a daily basis over the past week in the GTA (10 in the past 8 days), I’ve been asked more and more often what is going on, and if there can be some kind of explanation.
There are lots of explanations for why pedestrians get killed by vehicles (I’ve offered up some myself), but most of these explanations are true year-round or at least for the entire winter season. They can’t explain this sudden rash of fatalities in 8 days.
A minor element might be media focus — the phenomenon where one sees what one is looking for. The unsual and probably random fact that three pedestrians were killed in one day last Tuesday (Jan. 12), including one particularly heart-rending story of a mother killed while pushing her baby in a stroller, focused media attention on the issue, so each new fatality received more attention than the two-sentence paragraph in the Star pedestrian fatalities normally receive.
But the number of deaths in such a short span of time, and their consistency (pretty much one or more a day) is still freakish and extremely unusual. It seems to be worth trying to figure out if there’s anything that could at least partially explain it.
There can be no definitive explanation, but there is one factor that could conceivably have been a tipping point in some of these deaths — something that might have turned the near-misses and minor injuries that happen to pedestrians every day into a few terrible accidents over the past week.
A few years ago, the City of Toronto did a study of the statistics on collisions between vehicles and pedestrians (PDF). The study found that the peak months for these collisions were October to January (p. 23).
The study did not, unfortunately, dig deeper, but it did suggest that the cause of this peak may be the increasing darkness during this period. It’s notable that during these months the darkness extends into the commuting hours when pedestrian and vehicle volumes are highest.
It’s interesting that October to December is also when vehicle collisions with pedestrians become proportionately more common than collisions with other vehicles (in other months they are comparable). While vehicles can still see other vehicles thanks to their lights, they can no longer see pedestrians as effectively during these months.
(The study found that bad weather, somewhat surprisingly, did not significantly increase the number of collisions — probably because everyone is more careful).
How does this relate to the recent rash of accidents? Tuesday Jan. 12 was (if I remember correctly) a day when a series of sunny, cold days transformed into mostly overcast, mild weather that lasted until Wed. Jan. 20 — the period in which so many pedestrians were killed. Although dawn is happening a little earlier every day, the overcast skies meant it was actually darker every morning and evening than it had been previously. It’s possible that people have been deceived by the expanding minutes of daytime into thinking that visibility should be improving, but it has actually been worse than they realize for the past week. Conceivably, as a result, both drivers and pedestrians have thought they could see better than they actually could, and have not been as careful in the grey of an overcast dawn as they were when it was obviously dark. It only takes a few seconds of difference to turn a near-miss into a tragic death.
It’s a tenuous explanation, to be sure, but it’s the only thing I can think of that distinguishes the last week from all the other weeks of the year when pedestrian deaths are more spread out. At least some of the ten accidents in the past week have taken place in the morning hours when this deceptive lack of visibility could have been a factor. Although others were at times when visibility wasn’t a factor, it could have been responsible for just enough additional accidents to tranform what would have been a few random accidents spaced out over a week into a disconcertingly consistent streak that drew media attention.
For the first few days, I assumed the daily pedestrian deaths were a freakish statistical anomaly, but after more than a week of them, I think it’s reasonable to try to find some kind of explanation. If the deaths stop now that it’s sunnier, that would strengthen this hypothesis.
Could anything be done about this kind of situation? The answer is yes. I’ve proposed, for example, that zebra crossings (heavy white horizontal lines) in intersections would improve the visibility of pedestrian crossings in all light conditions and remind drivers to look for pedestrians at intersections. A City pilot project showed that they do reduce pedestrian-vehicle conflict. The City is installing them slowly as roads are repaved, but that process could be accelerated.
Another thing the City could do is have a public education program — such as ads on the radio — every October or November to remind both drivers and pedestrians that the increasing darkness makes accidents more likely, and to be more careful when commuting during the dark months.
In the past, these kinds of pedestrian safety public education campaigns haven’t been targeted at particular issues. But public education campaigns are most effective when they target a particular situation that people can relate to.
There are many other things that can be done to improve the situation for pedestrians in Toronto in general all year round, and many of them can be found in the City’s new Walking Strategy. But these two particularly address the issue of visibility.
It seems like something should be done to prevent a recurrence of such a tragic week for pedestrians.
32 comments
It’s entirely reasonable to look for things that can be done to improve pedestrian safety, and analyses of deaths against time of day, sky brightness, and weather are a good idea.
However, the explanation is most likely simple randomness. Random events DO spike into clusters (“runs of bad luck”). Of course, it’s also human nature to overreact to those spikes when they happen, whether they be spikes of pedestrian deaths, murders, or lottery winnings.
While these fatalities may be a statistical fluke, I would be looking for cases where the unwritten “rules of the road” governing relations between pedestrians and cars seem to be changing, or perhaps are not well-defined to begin with.
I am not familiar with the suburban cases, but I would ask whether increasing density has put more pedestrians on the street without adequate means for getting across multi-lane streets.
In the Dundas/Roncesvalles example, however, I can tell you exactly what happened. This is an intersection that often requires that pedestrians wait at two traffic lights in order to make a simple crossing. These signals are designed primarily to channel southbound/eastbound car traffic quickly along Dundas West, with pedestrian crossing as an afterthought. As a result, illegal pedestrian crossings are very frequent. The news reports of this fatality have mentioned that the pedestrian did not have the right-of-way, which is true. But the real question is why the City can’t construct this intersection in such a way as to allow the growing numbers of pedestrians in this area (several large condo projects have and are going up around here) to cross easily and safely at this important intersection. Perhaps Dundas/Roncesvalles would be a good candidate for a scramble crossing?
There’s also little to no snow left on the ground, as it has been so mild, which would would make it seem even darker.
As a pedestrian in this city, the near misses are constant, so I could believe that any appreciable change in conditions could result in more pedestrian collisions.
I think it is terrible and my heart goes out to all those that have been killed in such a horrible fashion. I remember when I was a young kid my parents told me to look both ways before crossing any street. I think that was, and still is a very good idea. The incident at Lakeshore (in Port Credit) where an elderly man was killed the other day he was crossing right in the middle of the road. This was so sad but pedestrians have to take responsibility when crossing. I see it everyday at crosswalks, people just push the button and don’t even put out their hand and immediately start walking across without looking. Drivers must be more attentive as well as the pedestrians. Let’s just hope this coverage has shaken people up and they start looking both ways at all times, even if one life is saved that is good.
Daniel ………….. Toronto
From the 1997 study:
“Pedestrian/motor vehicle collisions occurred more often in the downtown area.”
Really? Most of the collisions in the last couple of weeks haven’t been downtown, where drivers are more accustomed to seeing pedestrians and intersections are narrower–two factors that should make the life of a pedestrian much safer.
Even if it is overreaction to simple randomness, the media attention is helpful. When pedestrian fatalities are more evenly spread out, it’s easy for them to pass unnoticed. I don’t get the impression the city of Toronto does as much in-depth analysis as, say, London.
(And just one note on your Star article: the intersection of Eglinton and Mt. Pleasant does have zebra crossings.)
As a driver, I am noticing bad pedestrian and cyclist behaviour with increased frequency. There have been instances where I have been startled into an unexpected stop by people crossing the street without even pausing to look for auto traffic, cyclists who veer into my lane without checking over their shoulder and without indicating, and people who assume that I will see them in time to stop at a crosswalk when they press the button and walk without acknowledgement from the traffic they are crossing against.
I would wholeheartedly welcome a public education campaign for both pedestrians and drivers. If it were up to me, I`d focus on crosswalks. People don`t seem to know how to use them. I was taught that you stand at the curb, press the button (if available), point across the street, wait for traffic to stop, and then cross. I can`t remember the last time I saw someone actually point…or even wait for traffic to fully stop.
This may just be due to frustration on my part but I swear that some pedestrians walk with a sense of entitlement with respect to right of way putting the onus on vehicles to be fully aware of them but not vice versa. Maybe it`s just me.
Dundas and Roncy is a very unusual intersection that a lot of people cross against the lights. Also some cars make an illegal and dangerous right turn onto Dundas eastbound. I think the main issue is that its just a very congested and odd shaped intersection. If you favoured it in some way it would back up traffic into the mall entrance and Dundas West intersection which would affect way more walkers on their way to the subway. With a new LCBO going in the mall it may be time to finally put lights at the mall entrance and time them to match the DW and DR intersections.
These situations were not accidents but fatal collisions.
A lot of current road designs are for the safety of automobiles and not pedestrians.
The pedestrian traffic signals are too short for the elderly, the speeds are too high, the lanes are too wide allowing for faster speeds, the road is too smooth (streetcar tracks used have a rough surface, almost like cobble stones, which slowed down traffic), and too many signs for the driver to read and comprehend.
Traffic Countdown Signals a Recipe for Disaster
So why are we talking about expanding crosswalk timers when we already have seen a problem and risks to pedestrians? Has no one thought this thru?
Side one: Aging pedestrians unable to physically move any faster, particularly across wider streets and ones with TTC streetcar tracks, so they take chances and keep going as fast as they can even though many of us cannot make it across in the car-centric inspired expected time.
Side two: Impatient drivers on overpopulated and grid locked streets see the countdown like an edge to race ahead, like a speedway dragster race, particularly if they can zoom ahead of TTC streetcars or buses, that are big enough to hide slower pedestrians still crossing.
Mix badly and you have a recipe for pedestrian disaster. In a clash between steel and organics, the steel wins.
Root of the problem is bureaucrats who live in their cars making rules for the lowly footwalkers. After all, vehicle traffic flow=better economy=more money.
Josh > there are more collisions in the downtown, but more deaths in suburban areas. Downtown collisions are more likely to result in only minor injuries, largely I think because vehicles are on average travelling more slowly.
Matt L. > I actually wrote the article on the weekend, before the death at Eglinton/Mt. Pleasant. It took a few more deaths before they decided to publish it.
I’ve always wondered what role visibility plays in these accidents and near misses.
Quality of artificial street light has changed for the worse, IMO, with the introduction of sodium lighting – monochromatic renderings of a world we’re used to distinguishing in colour. On top of that, it means the old style “crosswalk” in yellow is hardly distinguishable from the general lighting.
Angle of shadows forced upon us by darksky-friendly cutoff fixtures make everything look gloomy (like holding a flashlight over your face), not to mention indistinct.
On top of that, in dusk/dawn/twilight, pedestrians are poorly lit while all cars now have running lights and as such are easily visible, lulling drivers into a sense of security.
All of these things can be a factor in drivers not seeing pedestrians quickly enough to react to their unexpected presence. Whether the unexpectedness is due to poor roadway layout, driver inattentiveness or inappropriate pedestrian behaviour is another issue entirely.
First of all, any driver who gets on here, and any police spokesperson who does the same, and point to pedestrians as the problem, are the type of drivers who are the problem. If you cannot drive in a manner ready for random pedestrian and cyclist behaviour, you should not be on the road. I am sure you see the need to be ready for random driver behaviour, and they are protected by a tonne of steel. Grow up, put down the cell, lunch and lipstick, pay attention or take a cab.
As for the rest, read Hume’s articles: in short, Toronto infrastructure, drivers, policing and politicians blow.
http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/article/753670–pedestrian-toll-a-sign-of-things-to-come
http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/article/753044–hume-silence-on-pedestrians-deaths-deafening
http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/article/753703–hume-we-must-find-a-way-to-share-the-road
It’s our culture – everybody thinks they own the roads. I actually see drivers speed up when a cyclist (or a car for that matter) attempt to change lanes in front of them. They speed up, honk their horn – and the road rage ensues.
I like how they do it in the Netherlands. Cyclists and pedestrians always have the right of way (because they are the most vulnerable users of the road). Using this approach might help change our attitudes and the sense of entitlement that drivers think they have.
Here’s a good video that shows how all road users get along in the Netherlands: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9kkBj3hv8bk
Dylan, I was disappointed that you didn’t recommend slowing down the speed limits on downtown streets. There’s no reason a car should need to drive 50KM/h on Queen or King street. Reducing the speed limit reduces the risk of death in a collision. Here’s a good chart to show the probability of a fatality at different speeds: http://sf.streetsblog.org/2009/03/02/valencia-signals-re-timed-to-improve-traffic-flow-and-safety/
James / The Urban Country
Heads up, pedestrians! Michele Manadel in The Sun blames pedestrians, even though “No one wants to blame the victim”
http://trafficservicestps.blogspot.com/
Interesting info she provides:
“Contrary to what most of us have always assumed, the traffic services officer says there is no law against jaywalking in Ontario. Instead, pedestrians are allowed to cross as long as the coast is clear.”
hah! The Toronto Sun is ridiculous. I just tweeted this:
@jamesschwartz Toronto Sun blames pedestrians for the 10 deaths in 9 days. Surprised they didn’t blame the house for this one: http://bit.ly/8dOzqt
We need a very strong “pedestrian first” approach in the GTA municipalities. Examples are: no right turn on red lights, pedestrian advance signal instead of being last, lower speed limits, wider sidewalks. Traffic needs to slow down.
I would agree with Urbanist, although I wouldn’t hold my breath for its implementation. Toronto remains largely a car-culture, as much as I wish that were not the case. Simply passing laws that will not be rigorously enforced (like the speed limit) is an inadequate response.
Speed bumps work. Narrower streets work. Signals that are timed to enforce a lower speed limit work.
A key problem is that the road signals and street design are engineered to decrease the time for vehicular transit — not to maximize the safety and convenience of pedestrians. We need to find a happier medium.
“First of all, any driver who gets on here, and any police spokesperson who does the same, and point to pedestrians as the problem, are the type of drivers who are the problem. If you cannot drive in a manner ready for random pedestrian and cyclist behaviour, you should not be on the road.”
Jamesmallon,
Aren’t you guilty of doing the same thing, only for the other side? I think it’s unrealistic to expect drivers to be able to react to erratic (and often uncivil) pedestrian and bike behaviour, while letting bicyclists and pedestrians off the hook. Everyone, regardless of how they move around the city, has to show equal doses of courtesy and vigilance.
As for the unusual number of deaths, it is unfortunate but I suspect it is only a coincidence. The environment for cyclists and pedestrians isn’t getting more hostile, at least not compared to last year.
Nicole, narrowing streets does not always work… the devil is in the details. A key issue often left out of the discussion is whether the travelling lane is widened or not. If a street is narrowed but the remaining travelling lanes are widened and any buffer between sidewalk and travelling lane is eliminated (as was done on Lansdowne between College and Bloor, especially the east side), the end result is a street where vehicles will move faster than previous and the street will be less safe from a pedestrian perspective. It’s a basic principle of road engineering that the wider the travelling lane, the faster traffic will tend to flow since drivers can afford to be less cautious… and yet, the policy of the city is actually towards wider travelling lanes, even on roads that they narrow.
It’s an over-simplification of the problem to blame one side. Many pedestrians take too many risks in the city; many drivers drive recklessly; traffic in the city is terrible; the roads don’t accommodate mixed traffic well enough; the sidewalks are too narrow; etc.
There are plenty of contributing factors, just pointing at one to the exclusion of all others isn’t going to help anyone.
Great point re: timers. Is the design intent of the countdown timers to only provide the countdown information to the pedestrian? As a driver, I certainly use the timer to gauge my speed entering the intersection and maybe that needs to be prevented. Yes, I might coast more if I see I have plenty of time left but no question that it is just human nature to speed up if you only have a few seconds left.
Perhaps the countdown timers should have blinder screens on them so that they are only visible when viewed from directly ahead and not from the drive lanes. This might prevent drivers being able to see them, so that they can focus on the traffic signals instead. Something similar is already done with the cross-street signals (typically shielded so that drivers in the perpendicular street don’t start moving ahead when they hit yellow) so why not hide the ped timers too?
Lots of great comments and ideas here! I think a lot of these pedestrian deaths have to do with infrastructure – it’s been set up to have cars move as fast as possible with little regard for pedestrians. But that doesn’t account for the recent spike in pedestrian deaths.
In any case, here’s something I’ve noticed. I live very close to Bloor and Brunswick. There’s a traffic light at this intersection with buttons for pedestrians to change the light to cross Bloor. The problem is that (seemingly inexplicably) sometimes it takes many minutes for the light to change. What happens is that pedestrians become impatient and start to look for gaps in traffic through which they can cross Bloor before the light changes. I actually feel safer crossing Bloor mid-block rather than at Brunswick.
I’ve noticed similar problems at many other intersections – it takes far too long for the light to change to let you cross busier streets. Many times it seems that the button pedestrians are to push (or those magnetic things indicated by white circles for bikes) don’t actually do anything, people become impatient and end up crossing dangerously.
–> samg: yes, you are right. I should have written narrowing “lanes.”
–> mark: I agree that there is something weird with the Bloor/Brunswick timer. The Ulster/Spadina one is similarly unresponsive. I *believe* the cause is that the button signal gets overrided or delayed depending on the time of day (and projected traffic usage). Traffic control seems to take precedence over pedestrian convenience and safety.
Speaking of dangerous intersections: I agree that the Dundas/Roncesvalles crossing is dangerous, but the one that’s two blocks down from there (Dundas West/Howard Park/Lynd intersection) is so much more dangerous. The same time the green light flashes for the pedestrians to proceed at Dundas West to get to Lynd Avenue, there is a green light signalling for the drivers to proceed at the Howard Park portion simultaneously. That to me makes no sense!
@Nicole
I don’t think it has anything to do time of the day or projected traffic usage. I don’t think there is anything that complex in place! In fact, I doubt much thought is put into the timing of traffic cycles (i.e. how long it takes the light to change after the button is pressed). I don’t think there is anyone who works for the city who’s job is to set the timers on these – I bet it’s just up to whoever installs it.
Funny story: Today I was making a left from Major Mackenzie Dr eastbound to Yonge St northbound into downtown Richmond Hill. Anyways, I had an advanced green and went for it, but some high school kids were walking into my path (with an advanced green, I don’t mind crossing into the center median as long as you aren’t blocking any right turners). I honked them and turn into the right lane instead of the left and they looked at me like they had the right of way. Well, the car behind me was a police car, and in my rear view it looked like he stopped to remind them how to cross the street properly.
Back on topic, I think the warm weather is the reason for these fatalities. More people are getting into their spring driving habits and are getting careless.
As a follow up to my last comment about there not being someone from the city who even looks at the timing of traffic lights:
http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/article/753706–countdown-signals-expect-you-to-walk-3-6-km-h
I stand corrected!
There is one strong possibility.
The start of this year has been virtually snow free, meaning that the streets are not compromised by the usual mix of slush and piles slowing down pedestrians and vehicles alike.
Add the shorter/lower light conditions of January, and……….”an imperfect lack of storm” may be the culprit.
Does everyone know about those timers those are not seconds on the clock. I think the idea is great but I noticed and timed them a few times, they are not seconds, the 10 “seconds” runs out in about 7 real seconds and if there are more same thing.
Don’t count on those as seconds.
Daniel …….. Toronto
http://dandmb50.tumblr.com/
The new pedestrian traffic lights in this city are unsafe. I have seen many drivers look to the light to see what the pedestrian is supposed to be doing…by they do not see that there might be 10,9, 8, 7, 6 etc seconds remaining even tho the red hand is still up. The red hand with the numbers just look like “stop”….and drivers get irate when you are in the middle of the intersection validly trying to complete your crossing. I’ve been honked and narrowly missed many times.
Plus, there really isn’t enough time for anyone but the fittest people to cross the street, actually. There isn’t enough for time for the elderly or anyone with mobility issues. I have seen pedestrians (including myself), furiously trying to assert my right to complete my crossing safely.
This pedestrian crossing time needs to be increased, and “hurry up and complete your crossing if it’s safe to do so” signal with ticking seconds needs to be changed to an amber light (not a red hand with numbers)